To change the course of the race for the White House, President Trump would have had to clearly win the second and final debate on Thursday evening in Nashville (Tennessee). In the general opinion, this has not happened and his re-election now seems to be in jeopardy.
Really? No one here has forgotten the gigantic fiasco of 2016 when unanimous polls gave Hillary Clinton the clear winner. So, a little over a week before the presidential election, and while 50 million Americans, a record, have already voted in particular by correspondence, Joe Biden’s camp urges his supporters to redouble their efforts. Foremost among them, ex-President Obama, will speak this weekend in Florida, one of the key states in the election, one of the biggest contributors to large voters. “We can still lose,” warned Biden’s campaign manager a few days ago in an internal email to her teams.
Can the situation change? By asserting that he wanted “to gradually turn away from the oil industry” because it “pollutes considerably”, the Democratic candidate took an unexpected risk, in contested states like Texas, and especially in Pennsylvania, a capital state where the shale oil industry is a large employer. Trump jumped at the chance: “He’s destroying the oil industry. Will you remember it in Texas? Will you remember it in Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio? “
Trump-side registrations are on the rise in some states
Normal that, like TJ Rooney, the former president of the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, Biden’s supporters are alarmed. “I do not close my eyes all night,” he worries. Beyond the polls which are likely to be wrong … and tighten a little, beyond a pugnacious Trump who multiplies the meetings and is never as dangerous as when he has his back to the wall, the Democrats have to many reasons to have bad blood.
Last month, as the U.S. economy was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, 53% of Americans believed Trump was managing the industry well. Even more worrying for Biden, at the end of September, 56% of Americans felt their situation was better than four years ago, before Trump was elected. Obama received only 45% positive responses, before being re-elected… George W Bush, 47% before he also returned to the White House… Trump is probably right when he assures us that if there had not been the pandemic, he would have been re-elected in an armchair.
PODCAST. Seen from Washington: the presidential campaign, Donald Trump and me
Another problem for Democrats is that Trump’s troops are particularly motivated. In Pennsylvania and Florida, for example, two pivotal states that Trump narrowly won against Clinton, Republican registrations are growing significantly more than those for Democrats. The low enthusiasm of Biden’s supporters is likely to cause him problems. The Washington Post notes a striking example of this apathy: only 68% of young black Americans say they will vote for Biden … 17 points less than for Hillary Clinton four years ago.
In the home stretch, and as campaigns flood the airwaves with television commercials in the most decisive states for November 3, Camp Biden can rejoice in having more than $ 100 million in their coffers, and to finish – the expensive – race in style. But even this advantage can be precarious. Last week, Sheldon Adelson, one of the Las Vegas casino tycoons, signed a check for $ 75 million for the president’s campaign… Until the end, the next ten days will be tough.
Original article by : www.leparisien.fr