Difficult to navigate in the face of so much cacophony. This Thursday noon, Joe Biden seems to have a significant advantage against Donald Trump thanks to his victories in Wisconsin and Michigan. It is even said at the gates of the White House. However, the stakes are far from over.
Beyond the more or less credible legal remedies announced by the Republican camp, and on the basis that he will win the 3 seats in Alaska, a Republican stronghold, and that Biden will indeed win the 11 seats in Arizona, we do not know still not the verdict in a handful of key states: Nevada, 6 seats, Pennsylvania, 20 seats, Georgia, 16 seats, and North Carolina, 15 seats. 57 seats therefore.
On paper, Donald Trump has no choice if he wants to continue the presidential adventure. It must be imposed in the four states cited. This is the only way for him to close the gap. Currently, according to the calculations of the majority of media and news agencies, the outgoing president is stagnant at 214 voters against 253 for his Democratic rival. As a reminder, whoever reaches the 270 mark is declared the winner.
A very close duel everywhere
This Thursday noon, the two candidates seem neck-to-neck in these different territories. Trump is leading the way in Georgia (+23,000 votes), North Carolina (+80,000) and Pennsylvania (+125,000). In the latter state, the gap is drastically reduced as the flood of ballots sent by correspondence is taken into account. While those already counted are a majority for Joe Biden, the billionaire’s clan has asked a local judge to suspend the count “while waiting for more transparency”. Without this hypothetical procedure, official results could be released on Friday evening.
Joe Biden has a very small advance in Nevada (+8000), a state conquered by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nearly 86% of ballots have so far been counted according to the New York Times. An update – perhaps decisive – is due to take place this Thursday afternoon, just like in Georgia.
Arizona’s fate could turn everything upside down
At first glance, the scenario is therefore simple for Trump: it is necessary to make a faultless. In reality, like this incredible election, which takes on the air of lying poker, there is another state to watch closely: Arizona and its eleven voters.
On Wednesday morning (French time), the Fox News channel and the American news agency Associated Press (AP) colored the region blue on the map of the United States, based on a poll of those who voted in advance. However, the New York Times like others prefer to remain cautious. The last counts made this Thursday morning from 86% of the ballots give only a meager advantage to Biden (1,469,341 votes against 1,400,951).
A turnaround in this state, and all the conjectures would be shattered. In this case, Trump, with the three seats in Alaska, would therefore have 228 seats, against 253 for his rival. He would only have 42 seats to win, and could therefore do without a state, in this case North Carolina (15 voters) or Nevada (6), as long as he wins all the others. . If it is Georgia that he leaves to his rival, then there will be a tie (269 each)! One thing is certain, whatever the scenario, Trump must not let Biden take Pennsylvania away or face knockout.
Obviously, these different projections assume that the two camps will respect the official results. Which is no longer even possible. Donald Trump has already asked to suspend the counting or to recount the ballots in three key states in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He is also threatening to take the matter to the Supreme Court, an option to be taken with a grain of salt. If justice got involved, as in 2000, the electoral nightmare could then last for weeks.
Original article by : www.leparisien.fr