The verdict of the American presidential election has not yet been delivered as the time has already come for self-criticism in the Democratic camp. As the dream of a “blue wave” has evaporated, Joe Biden’s method of convincing ethnic minorities is openly called into question.
“There is a strategy and a path, but the necessary effort has simply not been made,” lamented the very influential MP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday. Relying on the case of Florida, which remained in the hands of Donald Trump in part thanks to the voices of Cubans Americans, she nevertheless claims to have “sounded the alarm on the weaknesses of the Democrats with the Latinos for a long time, a very long time ”.
Julian Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and secretary of state under Obama, called him on NBC to “learn lessons” and “invest more” in these communities on a daily basis, and not just during the final sprint of the campaign.
The Democratic Party relied heavily on these groups, whether they were African-American, Hispanic or Asian citizens, to widen the gap against Donald Trump. There was no question of repeating the mistakes made by Hillary Clinton four years earlier. However, the first polls carried out at the end of the ballot box look like a cold shower.
More votes than in 2016 … in the white electorate
Preliminary estimates published by the New York Times – and which must be analyzed with caution – show no notable breakthrough among these groups, even if their vote was still overwhelmingly democratic. 88% of “Blacks” would have voted Democrat in 2020, they were 87% in 2016. The same goes for the “Latinos” (65% against 66% today).
In reality, it is rather on the side of the white electorate that Joe Biden seems to have garnered new support. 42% of the voters questioned declared having voted for him. This is five points more than in 2016. The increase is even 7% among those who have a master’s degree (35%).
Conversely, Donald Trump would have gained four points among the “non-whites”, from 8 to 12% of the ballots in his favor. As a reminder, these figures come from the 15,590 polls carried out at the exit of the voting booth by the Edison Research institute.
Trump’s anti-communist speech pleases
In any case, these figures illustrate how essential it is to combine ethnic, social, economic and cultural criteria in order to understand the aspirations of the population. The case of American Cubans in the county of Miami-Dadein Florida is the perfect example. In this “Swing State” that Joe Biden hoped to delight Republicans, the observation is glaring. Biden’s lead is three times weaker there than in 2016.
Democratic leader Julian Castro, of Mexican origin, regrets that this group has been perceived as a “monolithic” bloc. In other words, like a mass of homogeneous voters all having the same voting intentions.
“Democrats lost the Hispanic vote. Not just that of the Cubans. But also that of the Venezuelans, Argentines, Bolivians, Colombians… All are Trumpists here ”, affirms to AFP Eduardo Gamarra, professor of political sciences at the International University of Florida (FIU). According to several analysts, Mr. Trump’s victory is the result of the support he enjoys in the rural white world as well as his anti-communist rhetoric, which has convinced Hispanics living in Florida, known for their hostility towards leftist regimes. in Latin America.
In addition, the anti-racist demonstrations sometimes accompanied by violence which swept through the country this summer, after the death of George Floyd at the end of May under the knee of a police officer, frightened many people. “The South American voter here comes from the middle and wealthy classes” of Latin American countries, says Gamarra.
The Latinos were they “part of the path to victory”?
In the spring, some Democratic officials deplored the lack of attention given to these populations, which represent around 32 million votes, the largest reservoir of “non-white” voters in the country. The specialized site Politico then argued that Biden was the Democratic candidate “despite, and not because” of his proximity to them. “I don’t think his team thinks Latinos are part of the path to victory,” regretted Jess Morales Rocketto, the former director of digital organization for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
It is impossible to generalize the example of Florida and conclude now that the race issue has not had a central role nationwide. Or that it has not stood up to the “law and order” demanded by Donald Trump. In Minneapolis, for example, where the George Floyd affair erupted and the summer wave of protest over police violence, the Democratic vote jumped seven points (71%) compared to 2016.
However, in other cities bruised by deadly escalations, we are seeing the opposite trend. In Kenosha (Wisconsin), where the two parties were neck and neck in 2016, Donald Trump now has a slight lead (50.7%).
Postal voting in the United States: the discord ballots
Original article by : www.leparisien.fr